Is the Baltic a Russian Lake?

This technically is not a quotation. However I saw an article about the Russian's deploying short range ballistic missiles1 to Kaliningrad. The Iskander-M system2 launches two SS-26 "Stone" missiles which carry a number of defensive countermeasures and most worryingly are nuclear capable.

Iskander-M 2

This, combined with numerous articles with regards developments in the Black Sea (including the Russian "occupation" of the Crimea) got me thinking about what the Russian's mindset3 is over these areas. Now the Black Sea has had a lot of attention with regards to this recently (understandably so with the motions turning hot4, but I want to look at something different and about an area I know a little more about (although admittedly not a huge amount). So the question I ask is;

"Is the Baltic a Russian Lake?"

Geography

The Baltic Sea is a mostly enclosed body of water with its only natural entry point through the Danish islands in the west through the Kattegat. It is enclosed (From North Clockwise) by Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Kaliningrad Oblast (A Russian Enclave), Poland, Germany and Denmark. There are numerous islands - some of which are of significant size such as Gotland (Sweden) and/or strategic value such as the Aland Islands (Finland).

The very enclosed nature means we can look at it as an isolated issue - although clearly it strongly links to events on the land within Europe such as NATO deployments in Poland.

Baltic Sea (Russian Territory in red) 5

Russian Strategy

The Russians have two access points to the Baltic for its fleet to operate from; St. Petersburg  and its enclave in Kaliningrad. Accordingly it also has two obvious main strategic aims (although clearly there may be more going on behind closed doors).

Firstly Russia wants to keep the sea lane routes to Saint Petersburg open to maximise its trade going in and out of its second city with three major seaports serving the area.

On the other hand the Soviet Union and indeed Russian Federation fears attack (as anyone does) and so wishes to deny offensive access to its border areas. By denying anyone else6 military access it reduces the amount of weapons that can be used against it. By having a forward base at Kaliningrad this means the defensive bubble is further forward (and hence further from Russian soil). It also means that its fleet can be deployed in a more aggressive position to interdict enemy forces or threaten convoy movements.

Both of these aims are linked; by threatening the second it protects the first. The Russian Federation has seen "the old enemy" of NATO advance its borders further and further east with Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joining in 19997 - all of which were former member states of the Soviet controlled Warsaw Pact. By deploying forward in Kaliningrad it feels it can push back the forces it feels threaten it.

Baltic Reactions

The other Baltic nations are the ones directly threatened by this, and appear to be reacting in different ways. Estonia appears threatened by this with their Chief of Staff stating;

"In the long term Russia's wish is to bring the Baltic Sea and the passages leading to it more and more under its control, and to control it much like it does the Black Sea.8"

This also matches up with other nations desires to update some of their defences (although clearly this is a constant ongoing process with all nations). Lithuania is spending significant (€100 million) on the Norwegian-American NASAMS air defence system9. Finland has started the process to replace its F/A18 Hornet fleet with information being requested from 5 different manufacturers including BAe Systems with regards the highly agile and multi mission capable Typhoon10.

Finnish fighter of the future?11

This viewpoint is supported by ongoing Russian violations of Finnish airspace12. This is not isolated with suspected incursions over Polish and Norwegian airspace13 as well as Russian long rang bombers penetrating UK airspace14.

With many of the Baltic nations now being strongly entrenched with NATO, NATO will feel that defence of these nations as compulsory, especially with Russian forces strongly out numbering the Baltic nations on the ground15.

However not everyone agrees. The French are deploying troops in the area but say the move is purely defensive and President Hollande stated;

"NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe's relations with Russia should be. For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat.16"

Sweden have also said they do not experience any threat from Russia17. However, with a historical, official position of neutrality which has existed since the Napoleonic Wars18 this viewpoint could be an ongoing leftover of that stance.

Moving Forward

Although at the start of the I stated that we could look at the Baltic in isolation, this is only true on a strategic/tactical level. On a grand strategic/political viewpoint, it is linked into actions along the European/Russian border from Poland, Ukraine to the Black Sea as well as operations in the Norwegian Sea and into the North Atlantic.

Having said that, as things stand, Russia is in a strong position in the Baltic, its deployments within the Kaliningrad Oblast alone outnumber enemy local forces and and can operate on multiple levels with an all force deployment being available19.

All in all the situation will need to calm down or escalation could be quick with upgrades to local forces as well as external NATO forces reinforcing. The best way to judge if escalation is happening other than the obvious reinforcement levels? Well a US Carrier Group parked up in the Norwegian Sea could be a pretty big statement of intent.

References

1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37600426
2. http://www.military-today.com/missiles/iskander.htm
3. http://europe.newsweek.com/putin-dream-black-sea-russian-lake-476321?rm=eu
4. http://ukraine.csis.org/
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Sea#Coastal_countries
6. http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-anti-access-and-area-denial-a2ad-range
7. http://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/13/world/expanding-alliance-the-overview-poland-hungary-and-the-czechs-join-nato.html?_r=0
8. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/russia-moving-nuclear-capable-missiles-into-kaliningrad-says-estonia
9. https://www.rt.com/news/360854-lithuania-nato-defense-system/
10. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/finland-kicks-off-fa-18-replacement-process-420255/
11. http://www.baesystems.com/en/capability/aircraft
12. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37584058
13. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11609783/Mapped-Just-how-many-incursions-into-Nato-airspace-has-Russian-military-made.html
14. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/626167/Britain-Vladimir-Putin-Russia-incursions-UK-airspace-Michael-Fallon
15. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-09/baltics-to-black-sea-nato-unity-may-be-tested-by-next-challenge
16. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/07/08/France-says-Russia-a-partner-not-a-threat-.html
17. https://www.rt.com/news/360058-sweden-russia-no-threat/
18. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14682745.2013.765865
19. http://www.diplomaatia.ee/en/article/russian-armed-forces-in-the-baltic-sea-region/